AUD/USD: Bouncing in Down-Trend
The aussie has resumed its descent and reached close to previous lows at 0.9580 which might be expected to provide support. It has recovered strongly today and climbed back up although it will meet resistance at 0.9765 from the down-sloping trend-line for the move, at which point it could stop and resume its descent. The 0.9387 lows are next in focus although ultimately the target from the recent breakout of the multi-month triangle at 0.8010 provides the eventual endpoint for the move down down.
EUR/USD: Still on Trend-Line Support
The EUR/USD pair is still trading at the level of the July ’12 trend-line having pulled back to it after last Friday’s decisive break proved premature. We have had three days in a row trading around the level of the trend-line but eventually I think it probably will break lower again targeting 1.2580, with a move below the 1.2795 lows confirming. In the event of a bounce I’d want to see a break above the 1.3000 level acting as confirmation for a possible rally up to the 1.3170 highs.
GBP/USD: Bearish Target Reached
The GBP/USD has fallen to the target at 1.5010 generated after the breakdown from the bullish channel on the 10th of May. It is currently consolidating on an old trend-line at the same level and could bounce higher to perhaps the level of the monthly pivot at 1.5190. Eventually we shall probably see a move down to match the 1.4831 lows. From an Elliot-wave perspective the pattern we are presented with from the December ’12 highs is probably an impulse wave with wave 5 unfolding at the moment, and likely to match the end of 3 at the very least.
Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst
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