I revisit the EURUSD chart for the umpteenth time lately. The 21-day SMA (in blue on the chart below) held miraculously once again on Friday and now lies at 1.2775. Clearly, the bulls will need for that one to give way before generating any upside argument. Meanwhile, the daily trading ranges are constricting a bit, and the bears need for 1.2400/1.2330 to fall for another leg down and perhaps a try at the 1.2000 area initially. We lean to the downside argument for now.
Permalink Reply by Anne on December 3, 2008 at 2:01pm
EUR/USD intraday: continuation of the rebound.
Pivot: 1.265
Our preference: Long positions above 1.265 with targets @ 1.276 & 1.2805 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.265 look for further downside with 1.2565 & 1.2515 as targets.
Comments: The pair has broken above an intraday bearish channel upper boundary.
But this pair was on Friday Euro/Dollar attempted to decrease, reaching bottom at 1.2640, but further bearish scenario was rejected and the currency pair sharply rose to the top 1.2739, and closed at 1.2713. The longer the couple remains under 1.2850, the longer the descending scenario will be maintained. On the four hour chart we can see that the Euro is trading around the line of resistance of the decreasing trend and the CCI indicator is in the oversold zone pointing downwards, suggesting potential downwards pressure. First support is 1.2655. Break down of that level could lead to further bearish momentum.
upside stops in-range likely cleared in size above the 1.3620 area yesterday but offers cap ahead of larger stops said to be over the weekly highs. If the rate can close above 1.3650/60 area more upside is likely.
The US Dollar rose sharply on Monday as investor sentiment towards an economic recovery turned negative. As stock markets fell, investors took their money and fled back to the safe-haven, greenback. Things turned around quickly on hopes of an economic recovery after billionaire investor George Soros was quoted as saying that the "banking system as a whole is basically insolvent" which echoed the feelings of many analysts who question the use of government funds to sustain dying companies. Mr. Soros also said that the US economy in particular was in for a "long lasting slowdown" and was pessimistic over the potential for a turnaround this year and perhaps not even next.
From the high of 1.3438 it is expected to slide today to 1.3223 during European session and then rise again during US session to 1.34 area.Wide range swings are to prevail till mid week.Quick drops below low 1.3331 are buy opportunities to book profit during quick rise.
The Euro rallied on Friday one day after European Central Bank chairman Jen-Claude Trichet announced a credit purchase plan to help boost lending in the Eurozone. The plan would give banks security through the purchase of bonds covered by a pool of assets held by the banks. This would free-up money for lending that the banks were holding onto in order to cover those assets in case they went sour. The plan was met with optimism that the ECB was not spending money unwisely and blindly dumping cash into local projects that were meant to “stimulate”. Instead, the plan seems geared specifically towards banks and places the onus of lending to local businesses on the shoulders of those banks – while bank reserves will be covered or protected by the ECB.
At the close of daily fx markets, the Euro was up 1.83% to the US Dollar to 1.3633.
The European Union unveiled a plan to shore up their financial markets in the wake of the credit and financial crisis that has plagued the Eurozone and the world. The plan will tighten the control that the EU had on the markets and is intended to prevent the scenario in which governments will be forced to “bailout” banks that have been caught up in bad investments. The Euro gained on Friday as a result of this and also benefitted from the flight from the Dollar as well.
At the close on Friday in the daily FX market, the Euro was up 1.54% to the Dollar to 1.4158 after hitting a 6 month high of 1.4168 about an hour before the close.
There are bigger plans involved in the banking system. To see who is in power, read this: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article10903.html
Things haven't changed much in 300 years! But hopefully we can trade our primary currencies a bit longer before Mr. Geithner and his real bosses whittle them down to three, then just one currency! This is a rough week for chart readers, but it is a lesson, if in nothing more than patience! I look for 5 up and 3 down-all charting is really ElliotWave, no matter how you slice it.
Here is my forex broker review of EUR/USD: The surge in the EUR/USD over the last couple of days turned around from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 1.4338 top to the 1.3805 low coming in around 1.4135. That level and the 0.764 Fibonacci at 1.4212 are the final levels barring the way to the top. To the downside, we have yet to close below the 21-day moving average (blue line) and the big structural levels are the "neckline" like area around 1.3800 and then the very important support/old resistance at 1.3723.
Stocks fell on Friday, halting a six-day rally, after the Securities and Exchange Commission charged Goldman Sachs Group Inc. with fraud. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.6% to close at 1,192.13. As a result Friday saw the US Dollar climb against the Euro for the second day, the Dollar gained 0.50% to close at EUR 1.35011. The US Dollar also climbed against the Pound for the second day in a row, appreciating 0.65% to close at GBP 1.53607.
The dollar continues its rather erratic behavior on May 4th, although this time the greenback’s volatility has gone in favor of gains.
The dollar was able to gain against most of the forex majors as it was backed by positive economic data. The ISM Manufacturing Index was expected to come out at 60, but it came out at 60.4, boosting the dollar. After falling on May 3rd, the US stock markets were able to gain once again, with the NASDAQ increasing by 1.53% and the Dow Jones increasing by 1.3%.
Gold was able to continue its gains to close at $1,182 per ounce. Crude oil was also able to continue increasing to a one-month high of $87 per barrel before falling to close at $86 per barrel.
The pound sterling continued to fall against the dollar as investors seek to avoid risks posed by the upcoming May 6 elections. The GBP/USD forex online pair traded at a high of 1.5334 and a low of 1.5210.
The euro also fell against the dollar as investors await the final approval of Greece’s financial aid package.
The EUR/USD forex online pair traded at a high of 1.3360 and a low of 1.3153. The momentum for the EUR/USD forex pair will remain negative if it continues to trade below the 1.3270 resistance level.
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