November 2015 Blog Posts (35)

XAG/USD: pair in flat







Current trend





Today the XAG/USD pair is growing.



However, the pair remains under pressure amid investors’ expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December. According to the Fed Fund Futures, the probability of the rate increase in December is at 78%. On Friday, March futures on silver fell by 12.7 cents, while the WSJ Dollar index remains at 13-year highs.



Investors’ attention is focused on the US labour market data for… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 30, 2015 at 4:14pm — No Comments

GBP/USD: day of corrections







Current trend





Following a strong growth in the USD on Friday, a correction in the USD pairs has started today. Today is the last day of the month, thus, market participants may take profits on part of USD long positions.



High volatility is expected during the week amid publication of important macroeconomic indicators, both in the US and the UK.



In general, the GBP/USD pair will remain under pressure until BoE and Fed meetings, due… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 30, 2015 at 3:05pm — No Comments

AUD/USD: pair under pressure







Current trend





Today the AUD/USD pair is falling.



The pair is pressured by investors expectations of an interest rates increase in the US at the December Fed’ meeting and further monetary policy easing in Australia. In addition, Australian economic problems may get worse. The unemployment rate could increase as companies in the mining industry continue cutting investments, while commodities prices keep falling amid slowing Chinese… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 27, 2015 at 5:39pm — No Comments

XAU/USD: pair resumed fall







Current trend





After Thanksgiving Day in the US yesterday when American markets were closed and volatility remained low, since today’s opening the XAU/USD pair is falling.



Most likely, amid expectations of monetary policy tightening in the US downward dynamics in the pair will remain until the Fed’s meeting on 16 December.



Currently, market expectations that are represented by the price of Fed Funds futures stand at 78% probability… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 27, 2015 at 2:14pm — No Comments

USD/CAD: in upward trend







Current trend





Since the opening of the Asian session, the US Dollar has been growing. Yesterday, the US currency gained support from macroeconomic statistics that strengthened expectations of a hike in US interest rates at the upcoming Fed meeting.



US Energy Information Administration reported a rise by 0.961 billion barrels in crude oil stocks that added pressure on Canada's currency.



Amid expectations of US interest rates… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 26, 2015 at 1:51pm — No Comments

EUR/USD: general analysis







Current trend





Yesterday, the European currency reached its lows at 1.0585 and started correcting up. At present, the pair is trading at 1.0620. The level of 1.0585-1.0570, where large trading volumes were seen yesterday, is considered as the key one.



Moreover, it is worth noting that a number of major banks, such as Goldman Sachs, have significantly reduced EUR/USD short positions. As many analysts suggest, these actions are already priced… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 26, 2015 at 1:06pm — No Comments

NZD/USD: US Dollar gains back losses







Current trend





The next RBNZ meeting is due on 9 December. While the Fed is getting ready to start tightening US monetary policy, NZ monetary policy tends to remain loose.



Amid lowering exports to China, falling commodity and dairy products prices and a slowdown in GDP growth, the RBNZ is likely to cut its interest rates again. The head of the RBNZ Graeme Wheeler has repeatedly stated possibility of this scenario.





Support… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 25, 2015 at 3:14pm — No Comments

Today's GBP Weakness and GBP/AUD Sell Signal

Today in forex trading the GBP was weak on all pairs, driving strong price movement and trading opportunities. The trading signals from The Forex Heatmap® and chart movement for these pairs is shown below in the images. For a complete assessment of the GBP/AUD and the other GBP pairs go to the Forexearlywarning website. These live trading signals and trend based trading plans for 28 pairs are available from Forexearlywarning.com.…

Continue

Added by Mark Mc Donnell on November 25, 2015 at 3:11am — No Comments

AUD/USD: pair in correction







Current trend





At today’s meeting, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens pointed out to improvements in employment in Australia and the general state of the economy outside of the mining industry.



Nevertheless, amid falling investment in mining companies, slowing inflation rates, reduction in commodities exports to China and slowdown of the export oriented Australian economy further interest rates cuts seems to be the likeliest scenario.



Today… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 24, 2015 at 8:35pm — No Comments

USD/CHF: pair overbought







Current trend





Switzerland’s export-oriented economy is under pressure amid a slowdown in the eurozone and China. Moreover, a strong national currency makes Swiss export less competitive.



Swiss inflation and retail sales growth have fallen to almost zero and industrial production has declined. At the same time, the Fed is expected to raise its interest rates at December meeting. These factors will keep the Swiss franc from growing in the… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 23, 2015 at 4:08pm — No Comments

EUR/USD: general analysis







Current trend





The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend. The European currency was under pressure from commentaries by ECB President who stated that the Regulator is ready to further ease its monetary policy. In addition to QE expansion, deposit rates may be cut that was considered by market participants as a signal to enter short positions.



Inflation in the eurozone remains below the target level. In October, the indicator gained only… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 23, 2015 at 3:33pm — No Comments

USD/JPY: BoJ Governor satisfied with GDP statistics







Current trend





Yesterday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged. BoJ Governor considers that a decline in the third-quarter GDP was insignificant. However, as many economists suggest, the Regulator may be back to discussion on easing policy at its next meeting, due on 28-29 January.



At the same time, market participant are getting ready for a hike in the US interest rates. On Thursday, US stock indices… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 20, 2015 at 3:47pm — No Comments

GBP/USD: general analysis







Current trend





Yesterday, the GBP managed to strengthen against the USD despite a decline at the close of trading.



The National Statistics released UK Retail Sales data for October. After a 1.7% rise in September, the indicator came in at -0.6%, below the forecasted -0.5%. Retail Sales ex-fuel also fell by 0.9%, while analysts expected a decline by 0.5%.



Initial Jobless Claims statistics, released in the US, confirmed the forecast… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 20, 2015 at 12:28pm — No Comments

Brent: price strengthened slightly







Current trend





Yesterday, the price of Brent crude oil strengthened slightly and consolidated around $44.00-44.50 per barrel.



The Energy Information Administration released Crude Oil Stocks change that indicated an increase by 0.252 million barrels in stocks of crude oil in the US, well below the previous 4.224 million rise and the forecast of a 1.600 billion growth.



At the same time, the USD failed to get support from FOMC Minutes.… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 19, 2015 at 3:45pm — No Comments

USD/CAD: general review







Current trend





The pair is supported by increased expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December. In addition, data on Manufacturing Sales that came out on Monday in Canada showed a significantly worse figure than predicted by economists. Manufacturing Sales shrank by 1.5% instead of a forecasted increase by 0.1%.



During the week, attention needs to be paid to the publication of the FOMC Minutes and data on the Consumer Price… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 18, 2015 at 3:28pm — No Comments

GBP/USD: review and forecast







Current trend





During a week, the GBP/USD pair has been trading within a narrow range, close to the level of 1.5210. At present, the pair is still waiting for an impulse that will manage to push the price out of its sideways channel.



However, such an impulse is unlikely to occur today. The only news release that may influence the dynamics in the pair is FOMC Minutes. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Fed and are a… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 18, 2015 at 11:57am — No Comments

EUR/USD: decline is likely to continue







Current trend





Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistics are due today in the US. Ahead of these releases, the US dollar has strengthened against its major counterparts.



At the same time, recent statistics confirm that the EU economy is facing low growth and a low inflation. Thus, due to the difference between monetary policy concepts of the Fed and the ECB, the EUR/USD pair remains under double… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 17, 2015 at 4:47pm — No Comments

AUD/USD: RBA is not so pessimistic







Current trend





At present, the RBA needs to make sure that a decrease in interest rates is really appropriate. According to RBA Meeting's Minutes, business conditions in the country are seen as very favorable and economic growth is likely to strengthen despite high unemployment rate.



Today, attention needs to be paid to Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistics for October, due in the US. The indicator are… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 17, 2015 at 1:49pm — No Comments

EUR/USD: general analysis







Current trend





The EUR /USD pair is under strong pressure from the difference between monetary policies, led by the EU and US. The ECB aims at extending its quantitative easing programme as the forecast for inflation was revised down due to the strengthening in the EUR.



At the same time, despite of a slight decline in inflation expectations, Fed officials believe that necessary conditions for a hike in the US interest rates will be achieved in… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 16, 2015 at 3:08pm — No Comments

GBP/USD: general analysis







Current trend





Last week, the GBP/USD pair managed to strengthen amid weak US macroeconomic indicators, in particular, when Retail Sales statistics were released on Friday. However, at present, the dynamics has changed.



This week, attention needs to be paid to Producer Price Index, Retail Price Index and Consumer Price Index, due in the UK. The US, in its turn, releases Consumer Price Index. Favorable statistics may strengthen the national… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on November 16, 2015 at 12:52pm — No Comments

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