December 2014 Blog Posts (22)

GBP/USD: general analysis

GBP/USD: general analysis



Current trend



On Tuesday the pair GBP/USD has slightly grown due to technical correction. However, the USD is still supported by the data on the US GDP, which has grown by 5% versus expectations of 4.3%. Volatility is not expected to be high this week; however, the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector of the UK, which is scheduled for the release on Friday, can trigger the rise in the British currency.

Today,… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 31, 2014 at 12:10pm — No Comments

More dollar strength ahead.

Little spike to the upside earlier today in EUR/USD, but i still favour my count that suggest that there's still a little more dollar strength to come. If the bottom has reached for EUR/USD, i would need to see clear 5 waves up in 4H chart before calling this the bottom. 1.208 looks tempting and i will look EUR/USD to reach that mark.

At 1.208 wave 5 would be 1.618 (important Elliott Wave relationship) times wave 1 and this would be likely target for the end of larger wave…

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Added by VIVAICO on December 30, 2014 at 6:51pm — No Comments

GBP/USD: the pair will continue to trade in the downward channel

GBP/USD: the pair will continue to trade in the downward channel



Current trend



There is the lull in the market during New Year holidays. Due to lack of the macro-economic news, the pair GBP/USD is under influence of the trading sentiments. It is worth noting that despite the fact that the USD is significantly overbought, the demand on the American currency remains high. On Monday the pair slowly went down to the level of 1.5500; nevertheless this morning the… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 30, 2014 at 1:52pm — No Comments

Has EUR/USD found it's bottom?

Not yet on my opinion. I think there's still a bit more to go before this half year downtrend has exhausted.

EUR/USD moving sideways today with healthy volatility. I think this is now wave 4 before final downward push to maybe 1.208. At about 1.208 wave 5 would be 1.618 x wave 1.

This would then conclude larger 5 waves down from 1.3993 (june high) and would mark the start of larger corrective move. This correction should find support around 1.30.

More analysis free of…

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Added by VIVAICO on December 29, 2014 at 6:31pm — No Comments

EUR/USD in 2015 and beyond

I have forecasted EUR/USD on a different timeframes on my website http://vivaico.com but wanted to speculate a little further. As my readers will know i have projected possible moves for this Forex pair on weekly and monthly charts for months or even years to the future but now i wanted to also speculate on the reasons for these moves.

All of you that have followed EUR/USD lately will now that dollar has gained strength this year and i think this…

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Added by VIVAICO on December 28, 2014 at 10:05pm — No Comments

EUR/USD: the pair moved to sideways channel

EUR/USD: the pair moved to sideways channel



Current trend



The market has been calm and quiet today. Fundamental data is making almost no impact on currency rates as Europe and the USA are celebrating Christmas. From technical point of view, the EUR/USD is trading within a narrow range of 1.2226-1.2160. The price dropped behind the middle line of the Bollinger bands indicator at 1.2212 and resumed a downward movement. The bulls are probably targeted at the… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 26, 2014 at 4:32pm — No Comments

GBP/USD: USD continues to grow

GBP/USD: USD continues to grow



Current trend



The pair GBP/USD continues to move in the downward channel. Yesterday the pair tested new support level of 1.5485. At the same time, the American currency is growing versus the major currencies due to the growth of the US GDP in Q3. This index has grown up to 5%, which exceeded all expectations.



Nevertheless, many investors believe that the American currency is overbought, which is the first sign of a… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 24, 2014 at 2:53pm — No Comments

EUR/USD: general analysis

EUR/USD: general analysis



Current trend

The single European currency is still trading downwards. Last Friday, the important support level 1.2246 was broken and bears' next target is 1.2150. Standards and Poor’s agency's decision to lower its rating down to “BBB-“ for 2 largest Italian banks Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo is putting pressure on the currency. The rating was revised given some problem assets accumulated by the banks, the Agency said. However,… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 22, 2014 at 12:33pm — No Comments

GBP/USD: general overview

GBP/USD: general overview



Current trend



The British pound substantially consolidated against the American currency yesterday. Backed by the UK positive retail sales statistics, the pound grew by over 100 points during the trading session. According to the published information, retail sales grew by 6,4% in November. Investors responded to the news by actively buying the currency.

The economic calender does not foresee any macroeconomic releases today… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 19, 2014 at 3:59pm — No Comments

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF



USD/CHF, H4



Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, red line is directed downwards while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. The pair has been corrected above Kijun-sen line (0.9631) and lower border of the cloud becomes the next resistance level at 0.9700.







USD/CHF,… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 17, 2014 at 2:44pm — No Comments

NZD/USD: waiting for Global dairy trade report

NZD/USD: waiting for Global dairy trade report



Current trend



The NZD/USD continues to be trading within the wide downward channel. The quotes are correcting today: they tested the level of 0.7775 (the middle line of Bollinger bands) but did not manage to consolidate above. A downtrend is very likely to resume soon.

New dairy prices will be announced today at Global dairy trade auction and then they may decrease again. The largest dairy producer, the… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 16, 2014 at 4:40pm — No Comments

EUR/USD: general analysis

EUR/USD: general analysis



Current trend

European currency is traded near important resistance level of 1.2435, which is also a moving average with the period 200. If Euro fails to consolidate above this level, the pair can reach the level of 1.2350. Euro is under pressure from the decision of the rating agency Fitch to downgrade rating of France by two notches up to the level of AA.

The decline in rating was caused by the actions of French Cabinet of… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 15, 2014 at 4:07pm — No Comments

GBP/USD: the pair is trading in the upward channel

GBP/USD: the pair is trading in the upward channel



Current trend



This week, the currency pair GBP/USD is traded in the upward channel. On Thursday it reached two-week highs at the level of 1.5756; however, in the afternoon after the announcement of the results of the second phase of European LTRO, the quotes dropped to 1.5650. At the moment the pair has corrected upwards despite the decline in production output in British construction sector by… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 12, 2014 at 4:21pm — No Comments

USD/JPY: the pair's correcting today

USD/JPY: the pair's correcting today



Current trend



Today, the USD/JPY is correcting after the decline at the beginning of the week. Negative data from Japan catalysed the price growth. In October, mechanical engineering production dropped by 4,9% at an annual rate and by 6,4% at a monthly rate, respectively, which led to the growth of quotes to the level of 118.80. The growth may continue up to the level of 119.50 (the middle line of the Bollinger bands… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 11, 2014 at 4:10pm — No Comments

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD



EUR/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from below under the cloud, forming trend reversal pattern. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. With the help of the Bullish impetus the pair has entered the cloud, upper border of which becomes resistance level (1.2416). Tenkan-sen line (1.2369) is the closest support level.…

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Added by AlexanderLF on December 10, 2014 at 4:39pm — No Comments

Brent: the price goes down

Brent: the price goes down



Current trend



Crude oil Brent continues to decline. The price has already dropped below the level of $66 per barrel, which is the lowest level over the past five years. The main reasons of decline do not vary: these are the increase in production and decrease in demand. Additional pressure on the oil prices was caused by the forecast from Morgan Stanley analysts. They predict that next year oil prices will go down to 43 USD per… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 9, 2014 at 2:15pm — No Comments

GBP/USD: Pound will continue to go down with the target of 1.5410

GBP/USD: Pound will continue to go down with the target of 1.5410



Current trend

At the beginning of the last week the USD had considerably weakened against the major currencies; however favourable US labor market data provided support to the American currency. Nonfarm payroll has exceeded the forecast and the pair GBP/USD fell to the key support level and the local lows of 1.5600. Last week trading session closed at the level of 1.5570.

At this week opening… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 8, 2014 at 2:28pm — No Comments

AUD/USD: decline continues

AUD/USD: decline continues



Current trend



This week the pair AUD/USD has been trading in the downward channel. Slight rise at the beginning of the week, triggered by positive business activity index in the Australian manufacturing sector for November, has shifted to the decline at the level of 0.8310 (the lows since 2010). The strongest pressure on the Australian currency was caused by poor data on GDP for Q3. This index amounted only to 0.3%, which was… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 5, 2014 at 1:27pm — No Comments

EUR/USD: general review

EUR/USD: general review



Current trend



The Euro is still trading in a downtrend and the pair has reached an important support level of 1.2300. If this level is soon broken down, the decline may reach the level of 1.2200. The single European currency is affected by macroeconomic data, for example, the Composite Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 51,1 points in November. According to some preliminary economic forecasts, a decreasing demand on the part of… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 4, 2014 at 12:52pm — No Comments

NZD/USD: decline in price of dairy products causes the fall of NZD

NZD/USD: decline in price of dairy products causes the fall of NZD



Current trend



The quotes of the currency pair NZD/USD have been declining for the third consecutive day due to several reasons. Firstly, a statement that there comes a time to raise interest rates, made by the deputy chairman of the US Fed Mr. Stanley Fischer, has triggered the rise in demand for the USD. Secondly, prices of milk and dairy products continue to fall. Over the past two weeks the… Continue

Added by AlexanderLF on December 3, 2014 at 1:36pm — No Comments

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