In this issue:
Weekly review for 9 - 13.04, 2012
Euro: At the beginning of the week the Euro fell against almost all major currencies, amid growing fears of a new round of crisis in Europe on the background of growth of Spain and Italy governments bond’s yields. The ten-year bond yields of Italy, the third largest economy in Europe, rose by 23 basis points, reaching 5.69 percent, its highest level since February 17. This sharp rise in yields triggered market participants’ fears of thinking of new round of crisis in Europe. The EUR / USD got hammered and fell to the lows of $ 1.3060. On Wednesday The EUR / USD pair was able to recover rising to $ 1.3132 and then recorded its daily high near the resistance level of $1.3150 at the European session. In addition, the support the single currency was provided by a decrease in the yield of Spanish and Italian government bonds. The results of auction on Italian government bonds were positive and supported the Euro currency, which strengthened against its major competitors. Italy sold its securities for 4.88 billion Euros, which was very close to the maximum target of 5 billion Euros. For the growth of EUR / USD couple also contributed a weak dollar. The pair rose to the region of $ 1.3175 at the European session. On Friday, April 13, after the published information that the Spanish banks were increased the amount of borrowing from the ECB the pair came under pressure and dropped steeply to the lows of $1.3070.
US Dollar: After Federal Reserve Chairman Mr. Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy was far from being complete, the U.S dollar fell against most traded currencies. These statements might have suggested that the Fed would have thought of increasing the economic stimulus measures in a nearest future. Mr. Ben Bernanke in his speech mentioned that the April 6 report of the Ministry of Labor, which showed that in March, U.S. employers hired 120,000 workers, was still weak and even worse than the most pessimistic forecast. On Thursday the dollar weakened against most major currencies on the background of statements of the deputy chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ms. Janet Yellen in which she supported today’s soft Central bank’s monetary policy. The dollar declined against other major currencies during the European session. The demand for safe heaven currencies this day was weak due to the positive trading dynamics on the World’s stock markets. The dollar came under pressure and fell against its competitors. The dollar continued its downtrend after the publication of report on Initial Job claims, which recorded that the number of applications for unemployment benefits of first week of April increased by 13K versus forecasted decrease by 12K. On Friday, however, the dollar became positively active after the publication of consumer price inflation in the U.S. and good news of China’s economy growth. The U.S. dollar traded in positive territory substantially changing its previous downtrend.
British Pound: During the week the GBP / USD pair tried to copy the EUR / USD trading dynamics. However, the couple suffered big intraday sell-off falling from highs of $1.5930 to lows of $1.5808 on Tuesday. The Wednesday’s positive report provided by the British Retail Consortium on March Retail Sales in UK, which showed an increase gave some support for the British currency and the GBP /USD pair went to test the highs of previous session , the level of $1.5931. In details, the Retail sales grew by 1.3 % on year on year basis. On Thursday the pound fell as a result of published data on the trade balance. The Total trade balance dropped lower in February than forecasted partly because of falling car exports in January. On Friday, April 13, the pair came under pressure for the same reason as the Euro currency and the GBP / USD couple fell to lows of $1.5845
Japanese Yen: The Bank of Japan left its interest rate unchanged at 0 to 0, 1 percent on Tuesday’s meeting. It was a good sign for the yen and it rose against all 16 major currencies. The decision of the Bank matched forecasts, however, the financial market still remains expectations that the central bank may try to demonstrate its readiness to fight for achieving recently targeted level of inflation. The USD / JPY pair traded down during both sessions moving lower than Monday's lows and dropping to the area of Y80, 83. The yen continued its uptrend against the dollar and many other traded currencies amid growing demand for the safe haven assets, which increased after the Federal Reserve Chairman, Mr. Ben Bernanke said the U.S. recovery was far from being complete. These words supported for the sellers on stock markets as well. On Wednesday, amid speculation that the Bank of Japan is preparing another monetary easing in this month, the yen weakened against almost all of the 16 most traded currencies. However, on Thursday the currency got support by the words of the head of the Bank of Japan Masaaki Shirakawa, who said that he would continue easing monetary policy. The USD / JPY pair recorded the European session high at the Y81.11 level.
Australian and New Zealand dollar: On the background of the Bank of Japan’s decision of leaving its monetary policy unchanged the Australian and New Zealand dollar dropped against their competitors. The pressure on these currencies trading dynamics was also provided by the negative words of Chinese officials, who said that the global economic situation remains “grim ".The currencies rose against their competitors on the backdrop of rising stock indices and increasing demand for risky assets on Wednesday. The Australian currency got support after the report which was provided by the Australian Statistics Office. The report showed that the number of people employed in Australia increased in a last month to 44000. It was much more than the number of 6500, which was predicted by the economists’ expectations.
Weekly technical analysis for 16 - 20. 04, 2012
The pair has declined to the Neckline of Double Top. If 1.30579 is broken the end of the figure maybe expected at 1.27572.
Resistance: 1.33427, 1.37441, 1.41130
Support: 1.28800, 1.25667, 1.20280
The pair has tested Moving Average (100) at 1.59962 and stays below this level. It may bring pair to 1.56607.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344
The pair is aiming to the Moving Average (100) at 0.93772.
Resistance: 0.93264, 0.96597, 0.99031
Support: 0.91074, 0.88022, 0.85633
The pair is trading around Moving Average (100) at 82.245. The pair is aiming to test support at 80.244.
Resistance: 83.330, 86.836, 90.909
Support: 80.244, 76.535, 73.126
The pair is aiming to decline to the median line at 1.01873.
Resistance: 1.03847, 1.05810, 1.07806
Support: 1.01873, 1.00592, 0.97889
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