AUD/USD: Box Pattern Forming
The aussie continues falling. Currently it has paused and is trading in a box range at the lows. Within that sideways range it has bounced to the range highs at 0.9175 and will now possibly start falling again back down to the 0.9035 lows, however, it currently continues to rise strongly and there are no reversal signs. If it breaks out of the range by rising above 0.9200 then it will probably rise to the trend-line at 0.9220; a break above that would then see a much stronger move higher to the upside target at 0.9320. Alternatively, if it breaks below the current lows and continues the trend down - as it is expected to do eventually – then it should move down to 0.8900 where the S1 monthly pivot is situated.
EUR/USD: Meeting Trend-Line Resistance
The EUR/USD pair is still overall in an intact down-trend with a mid-term target at 1.2550 following the break of the major July '12 trend-line. However, it has recently bounced off the S1 monthly pivot and reached resistance from the trend-line at 1.2890. It has pulled-back from there but not convincingly enough and I would rather see a move below 1.2845 swing low to give bearish confirmation. First target down are the 1.2800 lows, followed by 1.2665. A break above the trend-line, however, and above the 1.2900 highs would see a probable run up to an upside target at 1.2965.
GBP/USD: Down-Trend Renews
GBP/USD has resumed its down-trend and given the extreme bearishness of the charts will probably continue lower. If we get a decisive break below the old lows at 1.4830 then it should follow-through to the S2 monthly pivot at 1.4785, probably the next target lower. Since the breakout from the multi-month triangle in February the outlook has been bearish, with a long-term target down at in the 1.30s, however the the lows at 1.4250, (which is also the target for the zig-zag on the weekly chart) provides a closer objective. Any recover bounces would encounter resistance at 1.4960 from the trend-line there, with a break above that required to initiate a more substantial rebound higher.
Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst
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