Forex4you Technical Analysis 19 July 2013

AUD/USD: Trend-line broken

The aussie has broken above the down-sloping trend-line from the April highs and is expected to continue rising higher. It has temporarily pulled-back to the trend-line at 0.9150, however, although it is expected to use this as a platform from which to bounce, it will have to break above 0.9291 to get any higher. A break above 0.9291 would confirm a move higher, with an eventual target at 0.9550, however, a closer target is at the pivot at 0.9345, where it is highly likely to pause and consolidate. The longer-term trend is still down, however, with an eventual target at 0.8010, and it will probably resume after the pair reaches the 0.9345 level. Although less likely the pair could weaken sooner, with the next target lower at the 0.9125 level.

EUR/USD: trying to break trend-line

EUR/USD has been consolidating underneath the down-sloping trend-line from the June highs but now it is trying to break above. If it successfully rises above the 1.3175 highs that would provide confirmation of a breakout and move up to a bullish eventual target at 1.3300. Alternatively, if it fails to break higher than it is still quite possible that the trend-line could hold and resistance pushit back down to the support level from the three major MA's at 1.3030-75.

GBP/USD: consolidating in an up-trend

The GBP/USD pair has broken above a major trend-line and started moving higher. This significant bullish event has generated an eventual upside target at 1.5435. There is also a closer target at – or just below 1.5300 – comprised of the 50-day MA and the R1 weekly pivot which has just been met and it is possible the pair may pause and consolidate at this level, with any weakness finding support at 1.5195. Eventually, however it will probably meet its target at 1.5435. After that the broader down-trend may resume, as the longer-term target for the pair remains at 1.2725 – seemingly preposterous I know but a possibility. The target was generated from the breakout of the multi-month triangle.

Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

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