Forex4you Technical Analysis 22 July 2013

EUR/USD: potential bullish break

The EUR/USD pair has now managed to drift above the down-sloping trend-line from the June highs. Technically we have had a daily close above and if it manages to close again today then the break will be valid. This will generate a mid-term up-target at least as far as resistance at 1.3405. The only problem is the lack of volume so far, which would ideally be stronger, however, I'm marginally bullish. On the hourly chart and we can see the pair has reached the upper borderline of a triangle on the hourly chart and now it could either breakout higher, or move down to the lower border at 1.3110. A decisive move above the 1.3205 highs would confirm continuation higher, initially to 1.3300. A move below 1.3100 would probably signal further downside, with an eventual target within the support from three major MA's grouped at around 1.3030-60.

USD/JPY: wave 5 still rising

The USD/JPY pair is rising up in what is potentially a final 5th Elliot wave higher of the move off the June lows. It will probably reach to at least the 101.55 highs possibly even to resistance, eventually, at 102.00 from the R1 monthly and the R2 weekly pivots. Currently it has fallen back down to the lower line of the ascending channel but this is probably only temporary and from this area of support it will probably begin another ascent up to maybe 101.30 first followed by the other targets. Downside is less likely as the 50-day MA is supporting at 99.50 and it would require a decisive break below that to change the outlook, with a move then down to 98.30 a possibility.

Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst

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