Forex4you Technical Analysis 29 July 2013

AUD/USD: possible reversal pattern

The aussie is still trying to rise above the neckline of a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern at the lows. It is looking more and more like this could be a reversal pattern and that when the exchange rate breaks higher there will be a sudden burst upwards. There have already been quite a few attempts at the neckline and each time they have been repelled. 0.9317 is still the line in the sand, which if crossed could lead to a rise up to the target at 0.9595, however, given the number of false attempts it might be better to wait till the 0.9343 highs have been broken for a clearer green light. A move below the 0.9127 lows would bring into question the veracity of the pattern again and probably lead to a retouch of the lows; and lets not forget the longer-term trend remains down.

EUR/USD: meeting R1 monthly pivot

The EUR/USD pair has paused in its up-trend and is pulling-back. It stopped at the 1.3300 level where the R1 monthly pivot is situated and providing resistance. It will probably continue consolidating at this level and then break higher eventually before rallying up to the major trend-line at 1.3405, where it is expected to encounter further resistance. The current consolidation could correct back further before any more upside, however, and has already tentatively moved down below a trend-line on the hourly chart. It will probably fall to support from the lows at 1.3250; and a decisive move below that would target 1.3205, although it is eventually expected to resume its up-trend.

GBP/USD: up-trend still intact

The up-trend continues higher. It is now trading above the monthly pivot at 1.5374. Nevertheless it has as good as reached the original upside target generated from the break of the trend-line at 1.5405, and the 61.8% Fibonacci. So we could expect a possible reversal here, however, there is still no bearish confirmation from price. Overall therefore the conclusion must be that the short-term up-trend remains intact and the probabilities favour a continuation higher. The present consolidation will probably eventually break higher, with a decisive move above the 1.5440 highs confirming such a resumption and probably leading to a continuation up to about the 1.5515 level.

Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst - Belajar Forex

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