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July Forex Outlook by 6 Forex Management.com
July Forex Market outlook and articles explains 6 forex Management.com
To start off, a 12m ECB liquidity tender maturing on July 1 and a 3m tender on June 30 will be in place along side with the election of a new German president. German state delegates will have several rounds of elections for this, and the first ballot result is expected to be published around 1200GMT. Any hesitation from either the election or the ECB tender would not yield well for the euro.
The credit rating reduction by Moody’s on the Greek bonds a few weeks back, basically trimming down to “junk”, Managers are anticipated to keep shorting the Greek bonds & re-allocate assets among its other Eurozone sovereign bonds. The German, French, Gilts are most likely to benefit from this. With this said, we can expect an increased positive yield pressure pegged to the Greek bonds to make it publicly attractive. As the sentiments on the euro remain unchanged & this month comes to a close, expectations are negative to carry on to the next following months.
EURO – ranging – support 1.2210 / 1.2400
As investors turn close attention to the asset auction, bond index rebalancing, and German elections, the ECB cited many hedge funds most likely will position themselves on the short side towards the next few months.
As the Eurozone CPI & German are expected very soon, the business sector in the Eurozone yielded positive at 0.37, as well as most of the economic & services confidence resulted positive. The IMF however cautioned the Austrian debt level are unstable placing added pressure on the austerity measures. In connection to previous days article relating to bank stress test/s, the 1st batch of the German banks who took the said test passed & will have a de-briefing this coming mid July.
USD – trending – support 1.0318
Due to the oil spill caused or maybe orchestrated by the oil companies, the consumer confidence index took a 9.8 clicks dive to 52.9 in June. Other indicators though were ranging & needed to organize themselves first.
The USD dollar appreciated vs. the other ccy pairs except for the Yen. The Cross manage to close stronger & as well as the loonie, where the Canadian GDP yet to expect another monthly gain. The equity markets close -3%, Oil and gold contracts flirting between $75.70 and $1241.65 at the time of writing (+8 GMT)
GBP – trending – resistance 1.5130
Fiscal tightening is the closely observed policy by investors in relation to the growth expectations. The BoE’s monetary policy to hold rates friendy was at best sensible. However, mortgage approvals turned negative this month as well as a flat money supply the past month. GDP data is due but the larger test lies ahead to see how affects the growth outlook.
Outstanding impulse from the Euro with more than +150bps yesterdays close. We take mainly the euro benefited from the mostly negative US economic data despite its current economic issues & pressures. This however does not merit that the euro is on its road to recovery and that impulsive long positions on the euro is sustainable, and take this as a breather or correction.
With the successful asset auction from the Spaniards & the French, unfortunate delisting it is though for the Greek bonds from the bond indices. The impact of monetary policy to decrease liquidity is yet to be realized mid 3rd quarter of this year and its repo on the maturity day.
Other relevant euro events include the close fight favoring the elected German president and eurozone benchmark spreads tightened against the notes tender by the G10. And again all eyes on the all mighty non-farm due tonight. Prudence or extreme caution highly advised for uninformed investors.
USD – trending – support 87.6 / 88.5
As earlier stated, the US dollar dropped like an underwear against the euro during the overnight sessions yesterday, apart from the fact that the US economic data were “disappointing” at most. The S&P slightly regained shy its -30bps the other day.
Attention as well on the appreciating yen at least till towards the end of this month, sue to US economic anxieties.
EURO – ranging – support 1.2190 / 1.2500
Short deserved applause for the euro for well done massacre to the US dollar. The policy to decrease liquidity through asset sales favored the appreciation of the euro. The unemployment rate floats to the tone of 10%. Manufacturing index unchanged at 55, all yet with the anticipations of statements from ECB committees’ fiscal & monetary policies this week.
YEN – trending – support 74 / 75
The anticipated mining tax from the kangaroos sustained in the short term support for the Oz. The past weeks’ session benefited the Oz & commodity sector but pain the manufacturing on the Yen side as investors risk aversion sentiments strengthened the Yen.
Date Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
02-Jul-10
17:00 Euro Zone Producer Prices (PPI) mm May % 0.3 0.9
17:00 Euro Zone Producer Import Price yy May % 3.1 2.8
17:00 Euro Zone Unemployment Rate May % 10.1 10.1
20:30 United States Average Earnings June % 0.1 0.3
20:30 United States Non Farm Payrolls - Net Change June k -110 431
20:30 United States Unemployment Rate June % 9.8 9.7
22:00 United States Durable Goods Orders May % -1.1
22:00 United States Factory Orders May % -0.5 1.2
To start off, a 12m ECB liquidity tender maturing on July 1 and a 3m tender on June 30 will be in place along side with the election of a new German president. German state delegates will have several rounds of elections for this, and the first ballot result is expected to be published around 1200GMT. Any hesitation from either the election or the ECB tender would not yield well for the euro.
The credit rating reduction by Moody’s on the Greek bonds a few weeks back, basically trimming down to “junk”, Managers are anticipated to keep shorting the Greek bonds & re-allocate assets among its other Eurozone sovereign bonds. The German, French, Gilts are most likely to benefit from this. With this said, we can expect an increased positive yield pressure pegged to the Greek bonds to make it publicly attractive. As the sentiments on the euro remain unchanged & this month comes to a close, expectations are negative to carry on to the next following months.
EURO – ranging – support 1.2210 / 1.2400
As investors turn close attention to the asset auction, bond index rebalancing, and German elections, the ECB cited many hedge funds most likely will position themselves on the short side towards the next few months.
As the Eurozone CPI & German are expected very soon, the business sector in the Eurozone yielded positive at 0.37, as well as most of the economic & services confidence resulted positive. The IMF however cautioned the Austrian debt level are unstable placing added pressure on the austerity measures. In connection to previous days article relating to bank stress test/s, the 1st batch of the German banks who took the said test passed & will have a de-briefing this coming mid July.
USD – trending – support 1.0318
Due to the oil spill caused or maybe orchestrated by the oil companies, the consumer confidence index took a 9.8 clicks dive to 52.9 in June. Other indicators though were ranging & needed to organize themselves first.
The USD dollar appreciated vs. the other ccy pairs except for the Yen. The Cross manage to close stronger & as well as the loonie, where the Canadian GDP yet to expect another monthly gain. The equity markets close -3%, Oil and gold contracts flirting between $75.70 and $1241.65 at the time of writing (+8 GMT)
GBP – trending – resistance 1.5130
Fiscal tightening is the closely observed policy by investors in relation to the growth expectations. The BoE’s monetary policy to hold rates friendy was at best sensible. However, mortgage approvals turned negative this month as well as a flat money supply the past month. GDP data is due but the larger test lies ahead to see how affects the growth outlook.
Outstanding impulse from the Euro with more than +150bps yesterdays close. We take mainly the euro benefited from the mostly negative US economic data despite its current economic issues & pressures. This however does not merit that the euro is on its road to recovery and that impulsive long positions on the euro is sustainable, and take this as a breather or correction.
With the successful asset auction from the Spaniards & the French, unfortunate delisting it is though for the Greek bonds from the bond indices. The impact of monetary policy to decrease liquidity is yet to be realized mid 3rd quarter of this year and its repo on the maturity day.
Other relevant euro events include the close fight favoring the elected German president and eurozone benchmark spreads tightened against the notes tender by the G10. And again all eyes on the all mighty non-farm due tonight. Prudence or extreme caution highly advised for uninformed investors.
USD – trending – support 87.6 / 88.5
As earlier stated, the US dollar dropped like an underwear against the euro during the overnight sessions yesterday, apart from the fact that the US economic data were “disappointing” at most. The S&P slightly regained shy its -30bps the other day.
Attention as well on the appreciating yen at least till towards the end of this month, sue to US economic anxieties.
EURO – ranging – support 1.2190 / 1.2500
Short deserved applause for the euro for well done massacre to the US dollar. The policy to decrease liquidity through asset sales favored the appreciation of the euro. The unemployment rate floats to the tone of 10%. Manufacturing index unchanged at 55, all yet with the anticipations of statements from ECB committees’ fiscal & monetary policies this week.
YEN – trending – support 74 / 75
The anticipated mining tax from the kangaroos sustained in the short term support for the Oz. The past weeks’ session benefited the Oz & commodity sector but pain the manufacturing on the Yen side as investors risk aversion sentiments strengthened the Yen.
Date Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
02-Jul-10
17:00 Euro Zone Producer Prices (PPI) mm May % 0.3 0.9
17:00 Euro Zone Producer Import Price yy May % 3.1 2.8
17:00 Euro Zone Unemployment Rate May % 10.1 10.1
20:30 United States Average Earnings June % 0.1 0.3
20:30 United States Non Farm Payrolls - Net Change June k -110 431
20:30 United States Unemployment Rate June % 9.8 9.7
22:00 United States Durable Goods Orders May % -1.1
22:00 United States Factory Orders May % -0.5 1.2
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