NZD/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

The quotes of the pair NZD/USD continue to drop. On Wednesday the price has reached the lows since February at the level of 0.8077. The decline was triggered by the outcome of the FOMC meeting; as it became known the volume of asset purchase will be reduced again, while incentive program will be soon terminated completely, which indicates the strength of the American economy. The meeting participants promised not to raise interest rates for a long time, especially since inflation rate has not yet reached the target of 2%.
Today, the New Zealand dollar has won back some of the losses due to the positive statistics on the New Zealand’ GDP. This index amounted to 0.7% in Q2, exceeding the forecast. Attention today shall be also focused on the American real estate market statistics for August, which, as expected, will be weaker than the previous one. This fact can put pressure on the USD.

Support and resistance

It is likely that in the near future the price of the pair will continue to rise up to the level of 0.8160 (middle line of “Bollinger bands” indicator). After that the price will reverse and go down to the lows of February. Technical indicators show that upward correction will continue. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines have crossed and are rising now.
Support levels: 0.8100 and 0.8077.
Resistance levels: 0.8160 and 0.8210.

Trading tips

In the current situation it makes sense to open long positions at the current price and take profit at 0.8160. Pending orders can be placed at the same level with the target of 0.8100.

Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

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