Current trend


During the last week the pair was lowering and lost about a half of the 2 months growth (more than 200 points). The decrease is a result of many factors. The first is the RBNZ decision to keep the interest rate on the same level of 1.75%, which is minimal for last 5 years. The lowering of the rate affects the national currency negatively. The second are the positive USD data: Initial Jobless Claims, which is better than expected, the Import Price Index (much better than the previous value and the growth of the Oil Rig Count, which reflects the increase in oil production, oil rice lowering and the growth of the USD.


Yesterday and today the price continues to test the strong and important level 0.7170, the cluster of 38% and 50% Fibonacci from the whole range of the price movement during the last 3 years and the last falling wave. The reaction to this level will determine the price dynamic in the nearest perspective.

Today the important issues are the USA Producer Price Index (expected to be lower than the previous value, which is negative) and Fed's Yellen Speech, which can affect the market greatly.


Support and resistance


Resistance levels: 0.7485, 07390, 0.7340, 0.7250.

Support levels: 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7170.


Trading scenario


Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7250, 0.7340, stop loss is at 0.7130.

Alternative scenario: in case of a downward breakout at 0.7170 open short positions with the target at 0.7100, 0.7050, stop loss is at 0.7220.

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