Monthly

Monthly trend on NZD/USD is bullish. Market has reached 0.618 expansion from ABC-bottom pattern (purple Z-line), has made shallow retracement and continue its move up. The next monthly target is 100% expansion at 0.91 roughly. I intentionally show you the CD-leg that is ended at 0.91. This is just a cloned line of AB leg to 0.82. Both of these lines have the same speed and now you can see that market is faster then CD-leg. This is a bullish signs. The red line on the chart is our MACD Devinateur Indicator that shows trend. And now let’s look at yellow rectangle more closely…

#1

The very important is a signal that gives us MACD Devinateur (the red line on the chart). We’ve talked about this signal during previous research, dedicated to NZD, so let’s track him further. Look at yellow rectangle. During September, June and July market has tried to close below MACD Devinateur, but failed. It means that those who took this unconfirmed trend shifting to bearish and sell, now in trap. And there stops somewhere above the market. IT means that we can expect move to the previous highs around 0.7630 (red circle on the chart) area with a great probability sooner rather than later. That’s important.

#2

Weekly

Weekly trend, based on Exponential MACD is bullish. This time frame has a couple important moments. First of all, look at recent Fib AB-CD expansion (purple Z-line). The 61.8% target was in Accordance with 0.786 Fib resistance, but market has passed through it like it didn’t exist. Now, 100% expansion target is also in Accordance with even deeper Fib resistance level – 0.88. But this is not all yet. Another important moment is symmetry in AB and CD leg – it’s perfect. When market shows such harmony, it means that in point D – around 0.78 should appear strong resistance (at least temporary) for further move up. Some even calls this pattern as “AB-CD” sell. I think that market should reach it, also because of another reason. Look at red circle – this is a previous highs. How do you think, have some stops been hidden above it? Absolutely. And they will add fuel to further up move of the market.

Now it’s time for advance analysis. Look at blue wave lines on the chart – this is our Oscillator Devinateur that shows levels of overbought (upper band) and oversold (lower band) ahead of time. We can see that market will be overbought precisely at D point at 0.78. This is the level where we have to take chips off the table. Otherwise we can receive solid retracement against us.

Daily

Daily trend is bullish, market continue its move it parallel channel. There is no daily overbought, market has just passed through 0.786 resistance, so nothing is detain to further move up. This means that market should not show deep retracement to the downside. Optimally market should stay in the channel. That’s why, personally, I like to levels for possible enter on the ‘Long’ side – weekly pivot (blue line) at 0.75 or nearest Fib 3/8 support at 74.50. Anyway market should not move below lime line at 0.7411 that is weekly pivot support 1, it should hold the market.

Nice area for placing stop is just below Fib Conjunction support at 0.7350.

I think that NZD has a bullish bias for coming week. Personally, I will be looking possibility to enter Long on shallow retracement on Monday. There are three levels that are suitable for that – weekly pivot at 0.75, nearest Fib support at 0.7450 and weekly pivot support 1 at 0.7411. Nice area for stop placing is just below daily Fib Conjunction support at 0.7350. Target is 0.78.