There's a group of "traders" out there who make their trades based on pure, blind luck. Their argument is that given the limited outcomes possible in any given forex trade, there's a 3 in 1 chance of hitting a profitable trade.
Any given currency pair can go up, down or stay at the same levels, so there's the 3 in 1 chance. Given a big enough sample, statistically speaking, the three eventualities will even out in occurrences over time.
Take a sample of say 1,000 trades and odds are, the STATISTICS
will confirm the blind luck traders. Trouble is, we're not only interested in statistics here. As a forex trader
, we're interested on SUCCESSFUL trades. i.e.: Profits
The statistics might start to even out after 100, 200 or even more trades. Eventually, and given the nature of odds, the 3 possible outcomes will appear an almost equal number of times. That's probability for you. Eventually it evens out all possible outcomes.
IF though and this is a big IF, you took the blind luck route and it took a couple of hundred trades for the probabilities to start to even out, would you still be trading? Meaning, would there still be anything left in your account to trade with?
I know my accounts could take a few hits from trades going South on me, but know for a fact my trading accounts couldn't take 200 or even 100 losers in a streak.
Bottom line here is, I don't rely on rolling dice to select my trades. I do my homework, keep an eye on the forex news
and I base my trades on solid analysis and fundamentals.
Here's a quick tip for you. Grab a good Forex Ebook
, go over the contents and work through the lessons on a demo account. Familiarize yourself with the ins and outs of the markets and trade the demo account for a while.
Makes a lot more sense than rolling dice...